New Census Data in Clearinghouse Shows Drop in Migration to Florida

Domestic and international migration both slowed in 2025, with high-cost urban counties losing residents while mid-sized counties like Polk and Pasco kept growing.

The Shimberg Center has added new Census Bureau data on population change and migration to the Population and Household Projections section of the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse. Migration to Florida fell sharply in 2025, particularly in large, high-cost counties. Nevertheless, Polk, Pasco, Marion, and other mid-sized counties continued to attract new residents. This aligns with the Center’s 2025 Annual Report, which places these counties in the top 10 statewide for recent single family construction.

Natural change (births minus deaths) in Florida remained nearly flat in 2025. Population change was driven almost entirely by net domestic migration (people moving within the U.S., other than Puerto Rico) and net international immigration (people moving to and from other countries and Puerto Rico).

Last year’s slowdown in migration to Florida follows sharp increases earlier in the decade. At the 2022 peak, Florida gained 598,737 residents from migration— an average of 1,640 people per day. Moves from other states made up just over half of the growth. Domestic migration fell steeply over the next two years, but high levels of international migration continued.

In 2025, however, both domestic and international migration dropped substantially. Total growth from migration fell to 201,191 people (551 per day), with domestic migration only adding 22,517 residents.

High-Cost Urban Counties Are Losing Residents to Other U.S. Destinations

Miami-Dade led the state in domestic outmigration in 2025, with a loss of nearly 73,000 residents to other counties and states. In fact, Miami-Dade and Broward Counties both lost population to domestic out-migration even during the 2021-2023 migration boom, mostly to other Florida counties. High levels of international migration compensated to keep total migration positive until 2024, but both counties lost residents to out-migration in 2025.

Orange County also lost population through domestic out-migration in most years. International migration kept overall growth positive through 2024, but domestic outflows canceled out gains from international migration in 2025.

Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties captured some of the state’s domestic in-migration boom in the early 2020s. By 2025, however, both were losing domestic migrants and had a net outflow of residents.

Mid-Sized Counties Continue to Attract U.S. Movers

At the other end of the spectrum, several mid-sized counties continued to be magnets for domestic migrants in 2025. Polk County has landed in the top 5 counties nationwide for domestic in-migration every year since 2021. Combined with modest international migration, Polk has added 22,000-34,000 in-movers each year, although growth has slowed since a 2022-2023 boom.

Pasco County attracted Florida’s second highest migrant total after Polk in 2025 and showed a similar slight drop in migration after 2023. Marion County, on the other hand, has steadily attracted in-movers over the past 3 years.

The Census numbers don’t tell us where the latest domestic movers are coming from, but IRS figures from the 2021-2023 migration boom years offer a clue. In Polk and Pasco Counties, most domestic in-movers (58-59%) came from other Florida counties rather than out-of-state. In Marion, domestic newcomers were nearly evenly split between Florida and out-of-state movers. Most commonly, these counties drew from their neighbors. Polk County attracted the most people from Orange, Hillsborough, and Osceola; Pasco from other Tampa Bay counties; and Marion from Lake, Sumter, Citrus, and Alachua.

For population change and migration data for every Florida county, see the Population and Household Projections application in the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse (“Components of Population Change” and “Migration History” tables). For home construction and price changes, see the Parcel and Sales application and our 2025 Annual Report.

Anne Ray is the Interim Director of the Shimberg Center for Housing Studies at University of Florida. She leads the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, an online source of data on affordable housing needs and supply. Ms. Ray is responsible for producing the Center’s triennial Statewide Rental Market Study and has authored numerous reports on statewide and local housing needs. As a leading expert on Florida affordable housing policy and data, her work has been cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, and other state and national media outlets. Since joining the Shimberg Center in 2001, Ms. Ray also has performed research on public housing, preservation of affordable rental housing, energy efficiency in the affordable housing stock, the housing needs of persons with disabilities, farmworker housing, homelessness among Florida children and youth, and the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. She received a BA from the University of Michigan and a Masters in Urban Planning and Policy from the University of Illinois at Chicago.